The impact of cropland abandonment on food productivity in China's mountainous areas in 2050

doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107951

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	The impact of cropland abandonment on food productivity in China's mountainous areas in 2050
	Huang, Zhenyu 1,2; Duan, Qianwen 3; Jin, Jizhong 4; Tan, Minghong 1,2; Wang, Xue 1; Xin, Liangjie 1; Li, Xiubin 1
	2026-05-01
发表期刊	LAND USE POLICY
ISSN	0264-8377
卷号	164 页码:13
摘要	Accelerated urbanization in China has prompted sustained population outflow from mountainous regions, intensifying cropland abandonment and threatening food security. Using a Random Forest model, this study analyzed the influencing factors behind cropland abandonment in China's mountainous areas from 2000 to 2020. Multiple data sources and SSP-RCP scenarios were integrated to project abandonment patterns and associated losses in food productivity through 2050. The findings indicate an abandonment rate of 18.7 % during this period and show marked spatial variation. The rate was associated with higher cropland fragmentation, irregular shape, and poor connectivity. Under the high-forcing SSP5-8.5 scenario, the abandonment rate may rise to 36.8 % by 2050, which could reduce national food productivity by 11.3 %. Notably, high-productivity croplands in these areas are being lost at an accelerating pace, with the abandonment rate projected to increase from 5.1 % in 2020 to 17.6 % by 2050. This study provides a scientific foundation for understanding abandonment processes and formulating more targeted cropland protection and food security strategies.
关键词	Cropland abandonment Mountainous areas Food productivity Spatial differences
DOI	10.1016/j.landusepol.2026.107951
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Studies
WOS记录号	WOS:001678329800001
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.204/handle/2XEOYT63/42830
专题	中国科学院计算技术研究所
通讯作者	Tan, Minghong
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Land Surface Pattern & Simulat, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Resources & Environm, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 3.Univ Southampton, Sch Geog & Environm Sci, Southampton SO17 1BJ, England 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Comp Technol, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang, Zhenyu,Duan, Qianwen,Jin, Jizhong,et al. The impact of cropland abandonment on food productivity in China's mountainous areas in 2050[J]. LAND USE POLICY,2026,164:13.
APA	Huang, Zhenyu.,Duan, Qianwen.,Jin, Jizhong.,Tan, Minghong.,Wang, Xue.,...&Li, Xiubin.(2026).The impact of cropland abandonment on food productivity in China's mountainous areas in 2050.LAND USE POLICY,164,13.
MLA	Huang, Zhenyu,et al."The impact of cropland abandonment on food productivity in China's mountainous areas in 2050".LAND USE POLICY 164(2026):13.