Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions

doi:10.3390/math9222849

	Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions
	Ji, Qingqing 1,2; Zhao, Xu 3; Ma, Hanlin 3; Liu, Qing 3; Liu, Yiwen 1,4; Guan, Qiyue 5
	2021-11-01
发表期刊	MATHEMATICS
卷号	9 期号:22 页码:18
摘要	At the end of 2019, an outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) made a profound impact on the country's production and people's daily lives. Up until now, COVID-19 has not been fully controlled all over the world. Based on the clinical research progress of infectious diseases, combined with epidemiological theories and possible disease control measures, this paper establishes a Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR) model that meets the characteristics of the transmission of the new coronavirus, using the least square estimation (LSE) method to estimate the model parameters. The simulation results show that quarantine and containment measures as well as vaccine and drug development measures can control the spread of the epidemic effectively. As can be seen from the prediction results of the model, the simulation results of the epidemic development of the whole country and Nanjing are in agreement with the real situation of the epidemic, and the number of confirmed cases is close to the real value. At the same time, the model's prediction of the prevention effect and control measures have shed new light on epidemic prevention and control.
关键词	novel coronavirus epidemic control traffic control measures least square estimation SIR model
DOI	10.3390/math9222849
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[11801019]
WOS研究方向	Mathematics
WOS类目	Mathematics
WOS记录号	WOS:000727377000001
出版者	MDPI
引用统计	被引频次：2[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.204/handle/2XEOYT63/18041
专题	中国科学院计算技术研究所期刊论文_英文
通讯作者	Zhao, Xu
作者单位	1.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Comp Technol, Beijing 100190, Peoples R China 3.Beijing Univ Technol, Fac Sci, Beijing 100124, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Informat Engn, Beijing 100093, Peoples R China 5.Cent Comm CPC Natl Acad Governance, Party Sch, Beijing 100091, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ji, Qingqing,Zhao, Xu,Ma, Hanlin,et al. Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions[J]. MATHEMATICS,2021,9(22):18.
APA	Ji, Qingqing,Zhao, Xu,Ma, Hanlin,Liu, Qing,Liu, Yiwen,&Guan, Qiyue.(2021).Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions.MATHEMATICS,9(22),18.
MLA	Ji, Qingqing,et al."Estimation of COVID-19 Transmission and Advice on Public Health Interventions".MATHEMATICS 9.22(2021):18.